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Date de publication: 2 juin 2016
Auteur: Y B
Noter cette article :

L'American Chemistry Council a publié un communiqué de presse dans lequel elle analyse les chiffres de l'activité chimique au cours du mois de mai 2016.

Le Baromètre de l'activité chimique, un indicateur économique avancé créé par l'American Chemistry Council, est en hausse de 1,0 % au cours du mois de mai. Cette hausse fait suite à celle du mois précédent (+0,8%) et du mois de mars (+0,1%). Le CAB reste en hausse de 2,3% sur un an, et de 2,7% depuis 2014.

Le Chemical Activity Barometer comprend quatre principaux volets, chacun consistant en une série d'indicateurs : la production, les cours des actions, les prix des produits, et les stocks et d'autres indicateurs.

Résumé :

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), expanded 1.0 percent in May following a revised 0.8 percent increase in April and 0.1 percent increase in March. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Accounting for adjustments, the CAB remains up 2.3 percent over this time last year, a marked deceleration of activity from one year ago when the barometer logged a 2.7 percent year-over-year gain from 2014. On an unadjusted basis the CAB jumped 0.3 percent in May, following a solid 1.7 percent gain in April.

In May, all four categories for the CAB improved for the second month in a row. Production-related indicators were positive, with improvement in plastic resins used in packaging and trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry still hinting at an ongoing strengthening of the housing sector. Equity prices further rebounded in May, joined by a firming in product prices. Inventories and other downstream indicators were positive. Trends suggest increased business activity into the fourth quarter.

The Chemical Activity Barometer has four primary components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

The Chemical Activity Barometer is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy’s business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the wider economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile so a three-month moving average of the barometer is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.

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